Politics, Foreign Policy, Current Events and Occasional Outbursts Lacking Couth

Saturday, November 24, 2007

Suggested Wisdom VI

Actually more of a "wisdom of interest that I've recently discovered."

Civilian Irregular Information Defense Group

A focus on info-ops as well as concise analysis of politics and foreign policy. Especially interesting is the six, er, gun salute.

Fabius Maximus

I originally came across FM at DNI, but have recently learned of (and commented at) her personal blog. A focus on the xGW theoretical framework (specifically 4GW) as well as geo-politics. Especially interesting is her approach to the Iranian conundrum (interesting because it's similar to my own :)) and her willingness to enlist the completely counter-intuitive ideology of Martin van Creveld as far as nuclear proliferation is concerned: Historically states have become pacified rather than more belligerent upon acquiring nukes.

Larry Dunbar

Something of a philosophical futurist whose reflections are similar to that of what can be found here at Soob. Especially interesting is his (perhaps unintentional) conflation of Boydian theory and poetry.

Lastly, this article from World Security Network. What seems to have nearly escaped the notice of cable news networks is the recent political unrest in Lebanon as President Emile Lahoud steps down with no successor in sight. The Lebanese constitution posits that, legally, given the lack of a successor the political powers of the presidency should fall to the current (anti-Syrian) Prime Minister Fuad Siniora. Political wants, however, seem to have defied the constitution and as of this moment Lahoud left his executive control in the hands of the military. Publius Pundit contributor, Manuela Paraipan does an excellent job of framing out the political situation in Lebanon.

Good stuff


Anonymous said...

"Historically states have become pacified rather than more belligerent upon acquiring nukes.

Yes, except for the initial period of elation at having acquired nukes when their leadership tolerates much higher risks than usual. Van Creveld ignores that aspect despite it having caused several nucler "near-misses" and two wartime uses of the bomb.

Anonymous said...

Because I had to look the word "conflation" up, I can't really say it was intentional. If you mean did I try to write false statements that were actually true, I will have to say yes.

My guess is that I have both congruent and incongruent sentences, just don't ask me which is which.

Jay@Soob said...

I think he also misses the point on non-state actors getting their hands on nukes. One could consider that the more states that go nuke the higher the odds of an AQ Khan like transaction only this one involving the likes of al qaeda.

Even so acquisition doesn't guarantee success or even a plausible strategy for execution. The whole suitcase nuke seems a bit fantastical. It'd have to be one hell of an operation.

Jay@Soob said...


thanks for the comment. Very similar to that of my own philosophy.

Anonymous said...

Just out of curiosity, how do you know FM is female?

Jay@Soob said...

Ah, and here Shlok asks a fine question. Fact is I've been trying to figure that bit out for some time. At her blog (we'll keep the current assumption up for the sake of simplicity) she refers to the "blog mistress" in some commentary. So either FM's blog is maintained by a lady (a la Zenpundit for example) or the "fellow" is actually a lady. Additionally I've seen FM referred to as "she" (via larry dunbar's site) and completely ignore the inference in commentary.

Truth is I'm not positive either way. Maybe FM will enlighten us.