It's damn near cliche by now but Hamas merely needs to survive to claim "victory." IDF press report puts the destruction of the Hamas infrastructure and ability to launch rockets into Israel as the objective. So the IDF will target weapons caches and probably some of Hamas upper echelon but I wouldn't expect a long term occupation.
The questions are, how long will this put Hamas militants "out of commission?" Will a vacuum in political control be wide enough and long enough to allow a re-emergence of Fatah leadership? If Hamas comes back into power will they have been stung hard enough to clamp down on their militants and halt rocket fire into Israel?
Keep in mind, through this whole ordeal we've heard only rhetoric from Hezbollah's leadership in Lebanon and that's been directed as much toward Egypt as Israel. Nary a rocket from Lebanon's south. This could indicate Israel's 2006 punishment of Lebanon has had a lasting deterrence effect. Will same same prove true for Hamas?
Time will tell.
11 years ago
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Israel would be wise to take a page from Emperor Hadrian's book when he reacted to the revolts in Judea.
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