tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37179942.post437190800091892142..comments2023-10-22T05:51:58.898-04:00Comments on Soob: New publication on Complex Systems and ConflictJay@Soobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12208597218366281778noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37179942.post-32849004430634131292008-05-11T23:28:00.000-04:002008-05-11T23:28:00.000-04:00I read through the article on prediction of terror...I read through the article on prediction of terror events at the global scale based on statistical analysis. The base premise is flawed under the "garbage in, garbage out" line of reasoning. Having robust statistics and accurate statistics are *not* the same thing. The data they are attempting to work with just doesn't have the empirical validity that should be required for a predictive algorithm. Even the authors admit their curve breaks down regionally - which means they are unable to account for spikes or lulls that are outside the norm they've established by globally distributing the tallied events. I do hope they aren't using my tax money...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com