Soob

In 1991 the collected states that made up the Soviet Union collapsed. Gorbechevs glasnost and perestroika initiatives either entailed a massive failure or groundbreaking success, depending on which side of the coin one adhered to. The end result of attempting to “democratize” and “capitalize” the Soviet Union was an effective collapse in which regions held together by the iron fist of communism fractured.

From Siberia to Moscow Russian cohesion held. The western territories, however, shattered into 15 sovereign states. The sudden and momentous liberalization of the Soviet territories proved too much, as the state collapsed and fragmented.

There’s a loose history lesson and no, I’m not going to wax further on the Soviet collapse. However it bears importance in discussing the topic that I’d like to present.

China.

Not so long ago I posted about my own take on the rise of China. Chinese priorities are much more on the nationalist level than they are on the expansionist level, China is further entering a more liberalized (albeit at a more controlled and slow evolution than Gorbs Soviet prescription) socio-economic era and will likely see a trend of democracy in the face of the fading Maoist ideals.

As China leans further from it’s Maoist foundation and closer to both democracy and capitalism will we see a domestic fracture? Certainly China maintains a 90% Han ethnicity. The remaining populace entails more than 50 minorities spread about Chinas northwest and western frontiers. In addition China’s Manchuria contains some 2 million Koreans. As the iron grip of the communist party wanes is it possible that these populations will conglomerate amongst themselves and affect a fracture along the lines we saw in 1991?

In the interest of discussion I've put this forward on both Sun Bins site and TDAXP.