Soob

Politics, Foreign Policy, Current Events and Occasional Outbursts Lacking Couth


The Unity of Rogue Nations
Chirols D8

A couple of weeks ago Chirol, the above mentioned, put forth a rather worrying (and apparently active... we'll get to that) scenario in which rogue states, or those outside Tad Homer-Dixons limo (no he's not Homer Simpsons southern counterpart. Pony up 13 bucks and read this) essentially conglomerate to form a dark counter balance to the developed nations (some of the fellas riding cool inside Tads' limo) G8. Hence D (as in dictator) 8 (as in eight states, though I suspect it will grow well beyond that.) D8.
In Chirols own words:

As globalization connects the world, we’ve seen the rise of interconnected smuggling organizations, terrorist groups, drug cartels and more. But many people focus on the negative effects of globalization with regard to non-state actors forgetting that as much of the world moves happily into the future, an increasing number of states are opting for a kind of parallel globalization, or a kind of club for isolated rogue states. In fact, globaliation is giving many dictators a second wind.
The West, and indeed the Core will have to increasingly formulate policies which aim not just to shrink the Gap but to prevent a kind of Rogue Core, one area Barnett and others overlook. This author can well imagine a day when the G8 meets with the D8 (D for Dictator) comprising villains from Burma, North Korea, Iran, Belarus, Syria, Venezuela and lord knows how many African nations.
Disconnectedness may equal danger, but that doesn’t mean connectivity equals safety.
More on this later.


The evidence: From Chirol

Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka arrived in Tehran late on November 5 for two days of talks with Iranian officials...Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinead expressed hope today that the visit to Tehran marks a “turning point” in bilateral ties. (anything within these semicircles is me)


More: From Younghusband (also of Coming Anarchy)
The visiting speaker of North Korea’s parliament, Che Tai Bek, expressed support Friday for Iran’s nuclear development program and stressed the United States and West have no right to defy such activities, Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency reported.


More: From R. Eglin at Marmots Hole
It seems that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez “El Shiz Nic” has become enamored with North Korea, though, judging from his activities regarding Iran and Libya, Chavez would be friends with anyone who did not like America. (follow his links: if there's a more cogent example of Venezuelas Nork sympathies I can't find it)


More: From subadei (er, me)
President Robert Mugabe and senior Zimbabwean ministers, in the Iranian capital of Tehran this week for talks, agreed with their hosts to strengthen bilateral political and economic ties based on shared membership in the Non-Aligned Movement...


Employing my peerless mathmatical abilities I've tallied the above and come up with D5 and counting. Here's my take on the why and how.

Iran enjoys a rather unfair game of Marco Polo, wherein Iran cries Marco! (got plutonium, want 100,000 centrifuges) and the US, effectively politically and literally embroiled in Iraq cannot even begin to cry Polo. Iran is the catalyst of this hypothesis and for good reason. America is bootswise (air power is a seperate discussion) hamstrung by Iraq and Afghanistan (despite NATO control.)
"Really, expound if you would, enlightened one," you request (go ahead, request it.)
My reply (sagely and between puffs on my Kay Woodie pipe) "Hydrocarbons my dear Watson."

Oil. Irans leverage point is oil. I'll make this short and sweet. The Norks are scrambling to develope secondary networks to provide oil (and currency, but we'll tackle that bit another time,) Belarus is chest deep in oil debt to their Russian uncle, Zimbabwe's Congo adventures have left it destitute financially and (as it always was) without domestic oil supply. Imagine the leverage Iran gains leveling her oil supplies at such countries.

Enter Chavez. Chavez is to Iran as Sancho Panza is to Don Quixote. While Ahmadinejhad maintains a very sound fundementalist support (but a shakey domestic adherence; youth,) Chavez places his future on barrels of oil and the monetary reciprocal support it entails. (Not to mention a gulag mentality regarding his pollitical detractors...)
Both maintain a vast amount of the global oil supply. Should both be willing to forfeit the economies of their countries (i.e. chase to windmill) both could effectively wobble global economics vastly. In effect, the two together maintain a rather worrying control over global economic stability. And here we've yet to reach the D8...
It's rough, it's ugly but it's a beginning. And, details aside, I think it's real. I suspect Chirol will have more to say on this. I know I will.