Soob

Politics, Foreign Policy, Current Events and Occasional Outbursts Lacking Couth

Uncle Naz

The Lebanese Power Shift

This past summers conflict between Israel and apartment buildings in southern Beirut has brought not only vast sums of rubble and (per Premier Siniora who is actually a senor) decades of infrastructural set back but has also heaved the previously maligned and feared Hezbollah into a position of political power broker. Traditionally most effective in Southern Lebanon (where they've effectively built a state within a state complete with healthcare, school and other infrastructures) it looks as though Naz is making a play for a bigger piece of the pie.
Bolstered by his self defined "defeat" of Israeli forces he's promised the anti-Syrian government a peaceful protest of Siniora's American "puppet" regime and is demanding they step down in favor of a national unity government. As Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt warns, Lebanon is staring coup directly in the eyes as pro-Syrian elements spearheaded by Hezbollah ready to deliver the coup de grace to an already reeling government. Having effectively circulated "evidence" of Sinioras regimes complicity in the Israeli air tirade this summer Uncle Naz has put the reformists on their heels.
Nazrallah is a hatefull bastard for sure, but he's also proving to be a sharp political strategist. Israels decision to create gravel pits (primarily in Beirut and Tripoli) and wreck Lebanons burgeoning economic and social network has apparently backfired. Should Uncle Naz realize his coup I'd expect a similar reaction in Israel as Olmerts' inherited Kadima party's fall from grace is concluded in a Likud takeover. With Binjamin Netanyahu as lead hawk we can expect a return to expansionist tactics in Gaza and basically the beginning of another cheerful round of blood letting and instability in the region.
That tiny clot of blood did more than destroy the Lion of Israel. It effectively destroyed any chance of peace in the region as well.